RUMBLE TONIGHT, BE THERE – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  Big Republican debate tonight in Orlando, sponored by Fox News and Google.  This is the most anticipated of the GOP debates so far.

It's the most anticipated because the public is getting to know the candidates and has made Rick Perry the frontrunner, but there are serious questions about his electability  The party expects Perry to answer those questions tonight.  If he can't, he might start to run into headwinds. 

Perry is still getting his campaign legs.  He still doesn't seem all that comfortable on the national stage.   He made a strong speech on the Mideast yesterday, but he read it rather than delivered it, and it was pretty clear from the phrasing that he didn't write it. 

The conventional wisdom is that Romney can only catch up to Perry if Perry fumbles badly, and I think that wisdom is correct.  In addition, it's now generally believed that the GOP field is complete...except for the possibility of Sarah Palin jumping in.  She is teasing the press every day with hints that she might, but she's also suggesting that she doesn't have to decide until November, which I think would be a mistake.

No Republican candidate has been able to connect personally, emotionally, with the electorate, or enough of the electorate to have a shot at victory.  But give that time.  People forget that Ronald Reagan didn't make that connection, and begin to bond with the public, until well into the general election campaign.

I'll be watching and live-blogging tonight's debate.  I hope you join us.

September 22, 2011